67% — Panama vs. England
Leader: England at 67% · Polymarket 67% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects that England is favored to win an upcoming match against Panama, with a 76% implied probability compared to Panama's lower likelihood. The high confidence in England likely reflects historical performance gaps between the teams, international ranking differences, and recent form. Key drivers include team composition and injuries ahead of match day, recent head-to-head results if available, and tactical adjustments either side might deploy. The match result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, with the outcome dependent on actual field performance rather than pre-match assessments. Contract pricing across platforms shows some variance, suggesting underlying uncertainty despite England's apparent edge.

Key factors:
- England's FIFA ranking and historical performance record against Panama-tier opponents
- Recent injury status and squad availability for both teams within 48 hours of match day
- Home vs. away venue designation and associated historical win rates for the competing nations
- Volume-weighted average pricing across Polymarket and Kalshi contracts ($135+ combined 24h volume) reflects liquidity and confidence level
- Discrepancy between platform prices (Polymarket implicit ~57% vs. Kalshi's 65% for England) suggests cross-platform disagreement on true probability

Contracts:
- Panama vs. England: England — 67¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Panama vs. England: Draw (Panama vs. England) — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Panama vs. England: Panama — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "67% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/panama-vs-england
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Panama%20vs.%20England
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev