92% — Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 900 in May 2026 Leader: Above 900 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:28 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is assessing whether Panama Canal transits will exceed 900 vessels in June 2026, with traders pricing an approximately 92% likelihood of this outcome. The canal's transit volume depends primarily on global shipping demand, which correlates with international trade activity and economic conditions. Secondary factors include canal capacity constraints, weather disruptions, and any operational changes. The probability will resolve with certainty once June transit data is published by the Panama Canal Authority, typically in early July. Currently, traders are pricing in confidence that shipping activity will remain robust enough to sustain over 900 monthly transits, though the sharply lower odds for thresholds above 1,000 transits (5%) suggest expectations of moderate but not exceptional volume. Key factors: - Historical June transit volumes: the canal averaged approximately 935-960 oceangoing transits monthly in 2024-2025, providing a baseline reference point - Global shipping indices and container volumes: Baltic Dry Index, Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, and reported shipper demand in Q2 2026 will indicate trade momentum heading into June - Panama Canal Authority operational capacity and any announced schedule changes, maintenance windows, or water level constraints affecting daily transit slots - Geopolitical trade flows: tariff policies, US-China trade conditions, and Suez Canal conditions (which affect rerouting decisions) influence which vessels choose the Panama route - Actual May 2026 transit data: the preceding month's results become the strongest predictor for June outcomes, acting as the primary resolution indicator Contracts: - Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 900 in June 2026?: Above 900 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 950 in June 2026?: Above 950 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1000 in June 2026?: Above 1,000 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1050 in June 2026?: Above 1,050 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will the total number of oceangoing transits through the Panama Canal be above 1100 in June 2026?: Above 1,100 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.502Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/panamatraffic Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20total%20number%20of%20oceangoing%20transits%20through%20the%20Panama%20Canal%20be%20above%20900%20in%20May%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev