94% — Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026 Leader: Above 175 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 13:41:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 91% probability that the Panama Canal will record more than 175 transit calls during the week of July 27–August 2, 2026. The high confidence suggests market participants expect normal-to-elevated Canal traffic during this period, though the steep probability drop at higher thresholds (19% for 225+ transits, 6% for 250+) indicates uncertainty about whether traffic will spike significantly. Canal transits are driven by global shipping demand, vessel scheduling, and any operational constraints at the Canal itself. The resolution will occur when the Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit data for the specified week, confirming the exact number of transits. Key uncertainties include seasonal shipping patterns, whether any maintenance closures occur, and broader economic shipping trends in late July 2026. Key factors: - Historical weekly transit averages typically range 35–40 per day (245–280 per week), suggesting the 175-transit threshold is well below recent norms but above crisis-level lows - The sharp probability gradient across thresholds (91% → 65% → 19% → 6%) indicates market consensus clusters around 175–225 transits rather than extreme outcomes - Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit counts weekly; this contract resolves against published data, making it verifiable and eliminating interpretation risk - Any unscheduled maintenance, drought reducing water levels, or major geopolitical disruption could suppress transit volume significantly below historical averages - Seasonal patterns in Q3 (late summer) and upcoming published data for the week of July 27–August 2 will provide the factual basis for resolution Contracts: - Will there be more than 175 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026?: Above 175 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 200 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026?: Above 200 — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 225 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026?: Above 225 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026?: Above 250 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will there be more than 275 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Aug 17, 2026 to Aug 23, 2026?: Above 275 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-19T14:20:59.230Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/panamaweekly Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%20250%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Panama%20Canal%20from%20Jul%2027%2C%202026%20to%20Aug%202%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev