27% — Will Donald Trump pardon between 3 and 9 people before May 1, 2026 Kalshi 27% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-02 00:50:21 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 26% probability that Donald Trump will issue pardons affecting between 3 and 9 people before June 1, 2026. The current probability reflects market expectations based on presidential pardon patterns and available information about pending cases. Key factors influencing this estimate include the overall rate of presidential pardons compared to historical norms, any public statements or signals from the administration about planned clemency actions, and the number of high-profile cases awaiting potential pardon consideration. The resolution date of June 1, 2026 provides a defined window; once that date passes, the market will settle based on official counts of people pardoned. Market activity suggests traders view a 0-pardon outcome as more likely, though contracts on higher pardon volumes remain available at lower prices. Key factors: - The market currently prices a near-certain outcome of 0 pardons before June 1 (96¢ contract), suggesting minimal expectation of clemency actions in the near term - Historical presidential pardon volumes vary significantly by administration and timing; the narrow 3-9 person range sits between the 0-outcome base case and higher-volume scenarios - Specific catalysts that would increase pardon probability include public announcements, legal developments in high-profile cases, or statements from administration officials regarding clemency - Market depth is limited with most high-volume contracts trading at minimal prices ($0 volume), indicating low confidence in predicting pardon numbers above 14 - The June 1, 2026 deadline is 1 day away as of the current date, meaning resolution is imminent and will depend entirely on actions already taken or occurring in the final 24 hours Contracts: - Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 10 to 24 — 96¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 99%) - Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 25 to 99 — 3¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%) - Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?: 100 to 249 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will above 249 people be pardoned in July 2026?: Above 249 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-31T01:20:51.833Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pardonstrump Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20pardon%20between%203%20and%209%20people%20before%20May%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev