24% — Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: 100 to 499 at 24% · Kalshi 24% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 24% chance that Trump will issue between 50 and 99 pardons before the end of 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about both the scale of clemency actions and timing before year-end. Several factors influence the current level: Trump's historical clemency patterns from his first term (when he issued 143 total pardons, though concentrated in the final weeks), his current legal situation and political leverage, and the calendar constraint of only seven months remaining. The single biggest catalyst will be any actual pardon announcements Trump makes, which would either validate the baseline expectations or shift market perception. Each pardon issued moves traders closer to resolution, while mid-year silence could gradually compress probability downward as the window tightens.

Key factors:
- Trump's first term issued 143 total pardons, with most concentrated in the final weeks, establishing a precedent for concentrated clemency activity
- The remaining time horizon (7 months) creates pressure—if significant pardons haven't materialized by fall 2026, the 50-99 outcome becomes less likely
- Any actual pardon announcements will directly move this contract and reveal Trump's clemency intent for the remainder of 2026
- Political circumstances including ongoing legal cases and congressional dynamics may create windows where pardons become strategically useful or necessary
- Market is currently split across multiple outcome bands (50-99, 100+ ranges at Kalshi), suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus expectation

Contracts:
- Will Trump pardon between 100 and 499 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 100 to 499 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Trump pardon between 500 and 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 500 to 999 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Trump pardon above 999 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 1000 or more — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will Trump pardon between 50 and 99 people before Jan 1, 2027?: 50 to 99 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pardonsyear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20pardon%20between%2050%20and%2099%20people%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev