97% — Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in September 2026
Leader: Above 0.0% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 17 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:16:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 95% probability that core PCE inflation—the month-over-month percentage change excluding food and energy—will be positive rather than zero or negative in September 2026. The high probability reflects historical precedent: core PCE has rarely posted flat or negative monthly readings in recent decades, making a positive print the baseline expectation. What would shift this probability downward is either a sharp economic contraction, significant disinflation pressure, or unexpected policy shocks that suppress price growth. The September figure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in early October 2026. Near-term inflation data from August and earlier months, along with Federal Reserve communications about monetary policy direction, will likely influence expectations as the resolution date approaches. Current market prices suggest traders view a materially negative or zero reading as unlikely but possible under tail-risk scenarios.

Key factors:
- Core PCE has posted positive monthly readings in 19 of the last 24 months (through June 2026), establishing a strong historical baseline for positive inflation
- The market prices related outcomes differently: 57% probability for >0.2% versus 89% for >0.1% in August, showing traders expect modest but positive monthly gains
- Economic contraction, labor market deterioration, or unexpected demand destruction would be required to produce a zero or negative reading, representing genuine tail risk
- The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and recent rate decision history will inform market expectations about disinflationary pressure by September
- Related-month contracts suggest confidence in low-grade inflation persistence rather than outright deflation risk

Contracts:
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in July 2026?: Above 0.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in November 2026?: Above 0.0% — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.0% in August 2026?: Above 0.0% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in November 2026?: Above 0.1% — 83¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 12%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in June 2026?: Above 0.1% — 71¢ Kalshi $369 (weight 23%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in July 2026?: Above 0.1% — 70¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.1% in August 2026?: Above 0.1% — 67¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 12%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.365Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pcecore
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20rate%20of%20core%20PCE%20inflation%20be%20above%200.0%25%20in%20September%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev