87% — Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%
Leader: Above 0.0% at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 18:11:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that headline PCE inflation for August 2026 will show a month-over-month increase rather than stability or deflation. The contracts are tightly clustered at 70 cents for both 0.0% and 0.1% thresholds, then drop sharply below 0.2%, suggesting traders expect inflation in the range of 0.1% but view higher readings as unlikely. The main drivers are current economic momentum, Federal Reserve policy stance, and energy price movements. Market pricing indicates relatively low conviction—the 60% probability for above 0.0% is only moderately confident. The August 2026 PCE release date (scheduled for late September 2026) will provide the definitive resolution. Traders are balancing expectations of modest inflation against the possibility of a flat or slightly deflationary month-over-month reading.

Key factors:
- Contract pricing shows sharp drop from 70¢ at 0.1% to 7¢ at 0.2%, indicating consensus for very low monthly inflation if above zero
- Zero trading volume across all contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent position changes or conviction updates
- The 60-70% probability band for 0.0-0.1% inflation is consistent with recent PCE trend data and Fed expectations for moderate price growth
- Energy price volatility and seasonal adjustments historically create month-to-month PCE swings, making predictions below 0.3% inherently uncertain
- August 2026 PCE data release scheduled for late September 2026 will definitively settle all eight contracts simultaneously

Contracts:
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.1%?: Above 0.1% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.3%?: Above 0.3% — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pcehead
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20headline%20PCE%20inflation%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%200.0%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev