29% — People's Bank of China rate change in April
Polymarket 10% · Kalshi 37% · 20 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:44:02 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 27pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in May?: No Change — 5¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 8%)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.6% — 64¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 4.0% — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in April?: Above 4.3% — 29¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 2.5% — 91¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Bank of Mexico Decision in May: No change — 7¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 7%)
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in April 2026?: Above 3.7% — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will the Bank of Mexico Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?: Maintain current rate — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-april
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev