39% — Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
Leader: $100M at 39% · Polymarket 39% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 06:40:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts whether Perena will reach a $100 million fully-diluted valuation within one day of its launch. At 47% probability, the market assigns near-even odds to this outcome, though the leading contract holder shows slightly more confidence than competing predictions. The near-parity reflects uncertainty about launch timing, initial market reception, and whether early trading volume and token allocation support a valuation at that threshold. Comparable token launches in the market show wide variation in day-one valuations depending on pre-launch hype, liquidity conditions, and demand from initial buyers. Resolution depends entirely on Perena's actual launch date and the market price established in that first 24-hour window. The significant volume in related FDV contracts—particularly the $500M and $800M thresholds—suggests active trader interest in mapping out the full valuation distribution rather than consensus around any single outcome.

Key factors:
- Perena's actual launch date remains unscheduled; earlier launches increase probability of reaching $100M FDV by concentrating trading activity
- Day-one market cap depends on initial token supply, liquidity provision strategy, and allocation to early participants relative to public float
- Comparable protocols show $100M day-one FDV is achievable but not standard; the $50M and $100M lower-bound contracts trade at 94¢ and 89¢ respectively, indicating high baseline expectations
- Market depth and order book quality at launch will determine whether sufficient buyer demand exists to sustain a $100M valuation through the first 24 hours
- Pre-launch community size and committed capital from investors and early stakeholders directly influence initial price discovery and trading volume

Contracts:
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M — 37¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $600M — 36¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M — 31¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $400M — 31¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- Perena FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 20¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/perena-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Perena%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24100M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev