38% — Who will perform the next James Bond Song
Leader: Olivia Dean at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 11 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 40% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Olivia Dean will perform the next James Bond theme song. The prediction is based on limited trading activity across nine contracts, with Olivia Dean commanding the plurality while other artists like Dua Lipa (16¢) and Lana Del Rey (15¢) also receive meaningful support. The probability would shift based on official announcements from Bond producers, production studio timelines for the next film installment, or news about which artists are in negotiations. The key uncertainty driver is whether a new James Bond film is in active development or greenlit, since the next theme song performer depends entirely on when the next movie production begins. Resolution will ultimately come from an official announcement by EON Productions or MGM designating the performer.

Key factors:
- No recent trading volume across any contracts ($0 24h volume), indicating minimal new information or market conviction in recent days
- Olivia Dean leads at 40% with next runner-up at 18%, suggesting significant but not overwhelming consensus
- The distribution across nine artists is relatively dispersed, with top five candidates ranging from 4¢ to 40¢, reflecting substantial uncertainty
- James Bond film production schedules and official soundtrack announcements are the primary triggers that would concentrate or disperse this probability
- Historical Bond theme singers have been established artists with strong commercial profiles, which constrains the plausible candidate pool

Contracts:
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Olivia Dean — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Raye — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Dua Lipa — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lana Del Rey — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Ed Sheeran — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Sabrina Carpenter — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lady Gaga — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 9%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.409Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/performbondsong
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20perform%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%20Song
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev