83% — Who will perform the next James Bond Song Leader: Lorde at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 08:58:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: Olivia Dean is currently priced at 29% to perform the next James Bond film's theme song, making her the market leader among nine candidates. This reflects traders' assessment of her likelihood relative to alternatives like Raye (18%), Dua Lipa (15%), and Lana Del Rey (13%). The probability depends on two main factors: whether the next Bond film's production schedule advances and which artist the filmmakers select as their choice. Typically, Bond theme announcements occur months before film release, and the decision rests entirely with the studio and filmmakers rather than on measurable market conditions. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be an official announcement from the production team or studio executives confirming which artist will record the theme song. Until such an announcement occurs, the probability reflects market participants' subjective views on Olivia Dean's appeal as a vocalist and likelihood of selection relative to competitors. Key factors: - Olivia Dean has no previous Bond theme credit, unlike some established artists, making her selection speculative rather than based on historical precedent - Market pricing shows significant fragmentation across nine candidates, with the leader at only 29%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus conviction - Raye, the second-ranked candidate at 18%, has substantial 24-hour trading volume ($24) compared to Olivia Dean's $13, suggesting active disagreement among traders on the relative rankings - No official Bond film announcement, confirmed director, or production timeline has been disclosed, meaning this probability is entirely forward-looking speculation - The resolution depends solely on a formal announcement by film producers with no intermediate data releases or events to update market expectations before that announcement Contracts: - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lorde — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Olivia Dean — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lana Del Rey — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Dua Lipa — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Ed Sheeran — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Harry Styles — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: The Weeknd — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - Who will perform the next James Bond Song?: Lady Gaga — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T08:20:49.768Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/performbondsong Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20perform%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%20Song Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev