11% — Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film Kalshi 11% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 10:15:05 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the chance that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. At 6%, the market suggests this is considered unlikely relative to other potential casting choices. The current low probability likely reflects the lack of official announcements regarding either the next Bond film's production timeline or its casting decisions. Key factors driving this estimate include Oliver's profile in the industry, competing candidates for the role, and the typical casting patterns for Bond franchise supporting characters. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be an official announcement from the Bond producers about the next film's cast, which typically occurs during pre-production publicity phases. Key factors: - No confirmed release date or production start date has been announced for the next Bond film as of May 2026, creating high uncertainty about casting timelines - Alison Oliver's casting history and visibility in major franchise roles relative to other actors typically considered for Bond supporting characters - The Moneypenny role has specific casting precedents (previous actresses in the role) that may influence market expectations about demographic and professional profiles - Bond film casting announcements typically occur months before production begins, meaning any material update would likely come from official studio communications - The current 6% probability level suggests the market views other candidates as significantly more likely, which would shift if Oliver were publicly linked to the project Contracts: - Will Adria Arjona perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Adria Arjona — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Anya Taylor-Joy — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Cailee Spaeny perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Cailee Spaeny — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Daisy Edgar-Jones perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Daisy Edgar-Jones — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Florence Pugh — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Margaret Qualley — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Mikey Madison perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Mikey Madison — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Sydney Sweeney perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Sydney Sweeney — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:08.947Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/performrole007 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alison%20Oliver%20perform%20as%20Moneypenny%20in%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%20film Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev