10% — Will Alison Oliver perform as Moneypenny in the next James Bond film Kalshi 10% · 18 contracts · $251 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 05:07:26 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Alison Oliver will be cast as Moneypenny in the upcoming James Bond film. The 10% probability reflects modest odds compared to several competing actresses, though specific casting announcements remain unconfirmed. Market participants are pricing in the relatively low historical frequency of established actors reprising the Moneypenny role, as well as limited public signals about Oliver's involvement in the Bond franchise. The main factors affecting this probability would be official studio announcements, casting news from Entertainment Weekly or Variety, or statements from producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson. The central uncertainty resolves when the production company announces the full cast for the next Bond film, which typically occurs 12-18 months before release. Until then, traders are making assessments based on industry speculation and previous casting patterns rather than confirmed information. Key factors: - No official casting announcement has been made as of July 2026 for the Moneypenny role in the next Bond film - Alison Oliver's profile and previous roles relative to the specific acting demands of the Moneypenny character - The production timeline for the next Bond film and typical pre-release casting announcement windows - Competing actresses have similar or lower probability estimates, suggesting distributed market uncertainty rather than strong consensus on any single candidate - Historical patterns of whether established British actresses or newcomers have been cast in the Moneypenny role in recent Bond productions Contracts: - Will Margaret Qualley perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Margaret Qualley — 26¢ Kalshi $251 (weight 100%) - Will Adria Arjona perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Adria Arjona — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Alicia Vikander perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Alicia Vikander — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anya Taylor-Joy perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Anya Taylor-Joy — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cailee Spaeny perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Cailee Spaeny — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Daisy Edgar-Jones perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Daisy Edgar-Jones — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Emma Mackey perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Emma Mackey — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Florence Pugh perform as a principal female character opposite James Bond referred to by major entertainment media as a “Bond girl” in the next James Bond film?: Florence Pugh — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T04:20:48.815Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/performrole007 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alison%20Oliver%20perform%20as%20Moneypenny%20in%20the%20next%20James%20Bond%20film Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev