7% — Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales Kalshi 7% · 6 contracts · $33 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:51:08 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates the likelihood that Miles Brown will be cast as Miles Morales in Marvel Studios' first live-action MCU film featuring the character. At 8%, this reflects relatively low confidence in Brown's casting compared to other candidates. The probability is primarily driven by casting decisions Marvel has yet to announce and the competitive field of young actors being considered for the role. Caleb McLaughlin leads alternative contracts at 12%, while Justice Smith and Tyler James Williams also trade higher than Brown. The resolution point will come when Marvel officially announces the actor selected for this role, likely through studio channels or major entertainment media. Until that announcement, market prices reflect traders' assessments of relative likelihood based on factors like actor availability, previous Marvel collaborations, and industry speculation. Key factors: - Caleb McLaughlin commands higher market probability (12¢) than Miles Brown (8¢), indicating traders perceive him as a stronger candidate - The top five alternative candidates collectively represent 54¢ of probability, showing the market views this as highly competitive with no clear frontrunner - Recent Marvel casting announcements and hiring patterns would inform whether Miles Brown fits the studio's typical selection criteria - No official announcement or confirmed production timeline for a Miles Morales MCU film has been publicly released as of the market date - Trading volume on the top contracts ($550 in 24h volume for McLaughlin) versus Brown's related contract indicates active market participation and potentially evolving sentiment Contracts: - Will Alex R. Hibbert perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Alex R. Hibbert — 6¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 100%) - Will Dallas Dupree Young perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Dallas Dupree Young — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Justice Smith perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Justice Smith — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Miles Brown — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Myles Truitt perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Myles Truitt — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tyler James Williams perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales?: Tyler James Williams — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.762Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/performrolemilesmorales Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miles%20Brown%20perform%20as%20Miles%20Morales%20in%20The%20first%20Marvel%20Studios%20live-action%20film%20in%20the%20Marvel%20Cinematic%20Universe%20to%20feature%20Miles%20Morales Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev