47% — Peru Liga 1
Leader: Winner: UTC Cajamarca at 47% · Polymarket 47% · 18 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Alianza Atlético Sullana will win the 2026 Peru Liga 1 championship. The current 48% price reflects a highly fragmented market where multiple teams are priced identically, suggesting either genuine competitive parity among top contenders or insufficient trading volume to establish clear differentiation. The market would shift based on team performance in upcoming matches, injury status of key players, and head-to-head results between the leading candidates. Resolution depends on the completion of the 2026 Liga 1 season, with the champion determined by final standings or playoff outcomes depending on Peru's league format.

Key factors:
- Five distinct teams are priced at 48% each, indicating the market sees them as essentially equivalent title contenders rather than a single clear favorite
- Trading volume across all contracts is zero over the past 24 hours, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery
- The identical pricing across multiple teams may reflect a default or initial market setup rather than genuine probabilistic assessment
- Recent match results and current league standings would be necessary to validate whether these teams actually deserve equal weighting
- Season timing and format details for Peru Liga 1 2026 would determine when the championship resolves and what events could shift probabilities

Contracts:
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: UTC Cajamarca — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Alianza Lima — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Deportivo Garcilaso — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Sporting Cristal — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Comerciantes Unidos — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Alianza Atlético Sullana — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: Atlético Grau — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- Peru Liga 1: Winner: ADT — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/peru-liga-1
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Peru%20Liga%201
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev