38% — Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%
Leader: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 8 contracts · $237 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:41:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% — 19¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 100%)
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Keiko Fujimori, 3-6% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Roberto Sánchez, 3-6% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Keiko Fujimori, 6-9% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?: Keiko Fujimori, 9-12% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be above 12%?: Roberto Sánchez, ≥12% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 6% and 9%?: Roberto Sánchez, 6-9% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.576Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/perupresmov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Roberto%20S%C3%A1nchez%20in%20the%202026%20Peru%20presidential%20election%20runoff%20be%20between%203%25%20and%206%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev