94% — Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%
Leader: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 07:43:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether the 2026 Peru presidential runoff will be decided by a narrow 3-6 point margin for Roberto Sánchez. Currently priced at 97%, this reflects expectations of a very close election outcome in that specific range. Market participants are weighing polling data, voter preferences, and regional support distributions. The current pricing suggests very high confidence that if a runoff occurs, the winner's margin will fall within this band rather than being either tighter (0-3%) or wider (9-12% or beyond). Resolution depends on final official election results from Peru's electoral authority. Key movements would occur if fresh polling significantly shifts projected margin ranges or if institutional changes affect voter turnout and regional voting patterns.

Key factors:
- Recent polling aggregates and their stated margins of error relative to the 3-6% band
- Demographic and geographic voting patterns that suggest whether regional polarization produces narrow or decisive margins
- Historical runoff margins in Peruvian presidential elections and whether 3-6% represents a typical or atypical outcome range
- Turnout projections and whether differential participation between coastal and highland regions affects final margin calculations
- Official preliminary results (ONPE actas) reported on election night that would clarify the actual margin trajectory

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the margin of victory for Keiko Fujimori in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 9% and 12%?: Keiko Fujimori, 9-12% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 0% and 3%?: Roberto Sánchez, 0-3% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-04T19:20:50.841Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/perupresmov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Roberto%20S%C3%A1nchez%20in%20the%202026%20Peru%20presidential%20election%20runoff%20be%20between%203%25%20and%206%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev