4% — Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30
Polymarket 4% · 1 contracts · $5K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:20:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Pete Hegseth, the current Secretary of Defense, will be removed from office before June 30, 2026—roughly two weeks from now. The low 4% probability suggests market participants view his departure as unlikely in this timeframe. The level reflects Hegseth's relative stability in his position combined with the short remaining duration. Significant movement would likely depend on major scandals, legal developments, health crises, or explicit statements from President Trump indicating his removal. Since the contract resolves in mid-June, the primary catalyst would be any breaking news or formal announcements during this narrow window. Without specific imminent threats to his tenure, the market maintains a baseline probability accounting for unexpected events.

Key factors:
- Hegseth holds the office as of mid-June 2026 with no publicly reported resignation plans or removal proceedings
- The 13-day window to resolution limits time for political developments that could trigger his departure
- Historical precedent shows Cabinet removals typically follow public controversy, legal action, or explicit presidential direction
- Market volume is relatively modest at ~$18k in 24-hour trading, suggesting limited deep conviction on either side
- Any reversal would require either unprecedented urgency in removal proceedings or a sudden major incident becoming public knowledge

Contracts:
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? — 4¢ Polymarket $5K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pete%20Hegseth%20out%20as%20Secretary%20of%20Defense%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev