21% — Will Matthieu Pavon win the 1st round 3-ball matchup
Kalshi 21% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates that Matthieu Pavon is expected to win his first-round three-ball matchup at 31%, meaning the market sees him as an underdog against his paired opponents. The current pricing reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and course fit for the specific tournament being played. Pavon's probability could shift based on recent performance in comparable events, any changes to the three-ball grouping, or updated odds-making information from sportsbooks. The resolution date depends on when the first round of the tournament is scheduled to be played, at which point one of the three golfers will advance or the format will determine an outcome. Market participants would adjust this estimate if new evidence about Pavon's current game or course history emerges before play begins.

Key factors:
- Pavon's recent tournament finishes and scoring averages relative to his paired opponents
- Head-to-head historical performance records between Pavon and the other two golfers in the grouping
- Course characteristics and how Pavon's playing style matches the specific layout
- Current injury status or playing schedule information for all three golfers
- Sportsbook moneyline odds and other market prices for this matchup available elsewhere

Contracts:
- Will Wells Williams win the 1st round 3-ball matchup?: Wells Williams beats Phillips and Crowe — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pga3ball
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Matthieu%20Pavon%20win%20the%201st%20round%203-ball%20matchup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev