42% — All 4 Golf Major Tournaments
Leader: Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer at 42% · Kalshi 42% · 10 contracts · $136 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 42% probability indicates market participants expect at least one of the four major golf tournaments in 2026 to be won by a player outside the consensus top contenders, or reflects uncertainty about which established favorite will capture multiple majors. The market is pricing significant unpredictability in outcomes across the Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and PGA Championship. The leading contract shows strong interest in Scottie Scheffler winning multiple majors (priced at 9¢), suggesting markets view him as a favorite but not dominant. Resolution depends entirely on actual tournament results from spring through summer 2026, with each major championship serving as a sequential catalyst that narrows uncertainty and eliminates possibilities.

Key factors:
- Scottie Scheffler's current form and injury status heading into 2026 season; his dominance in 2024 suggests he remains central to pricing but is not consensus to win all four majors
- Competitive depth among top-ranked golfers; whether Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and other established players can convert major opportunities affects who captures titles
- Tournament-specific conditions and course suitability; major championships favor different playing styles (Augusta's precision versus links golf), creating legitimate uncertainty about single-winner dominance
- Timing of majors relative to player fitness, form cycles, and international travel; back-to-back or clustered tournaments may disadvantage some competitors
- No single outcome appears heavily favored; the leader at 42% combined with runner-up at 26% shows market views the field as relatively distributed among multiple scenarios

Contracts:
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will any golfer finish top 10?: Any golfer — 42¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 7%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?: Scottie Scheffler — 24¢ Kalshi $126 (weight 93%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?: Rory McIlroy — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?: Cameron Young — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?: Xander Schauffele — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Russell Henley finish top 10?: Russell Henley — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 10?: Collin Morikawa — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?: Tyrrell Hatton — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgamajortop10
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=All%204%20Golf%20Major%20Tournaments
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev