13% — Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026
Leader: Scottie Scheffler at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 7 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that an individual golfer will capture one of professional golf's five major championships in 2026. The 15% price on the leading contract indicates a competitive field where no single player is heavily favored, though Scottie Scheffler's 47¢ price shows market consensus around an elite performer. The probability would rise if a player demonstrates sustained form heading into spring majors or falls if injury, form decline, or inconsistent recent results diminish prospects. Major championships scheduled between April and July 2026 will sequentially resolve these outcomes, with the first major typically occurring in April. Trading volume and price dispersion across contracts suggest meaningful disagreement about who will win, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of major tournament results across multiple events.

Key factors:
- Scottie Scheffler prices at 47¢, nearly 10x higher than next-ranked players, indicating market recognition of recent major championship dominance
- Top five contracts span 5¢ to 47¢, showing substantial disagreement on winner identity and suggesting no overwhelming consensus
- 24-hour trading volumes are moderate (164–395 per contract), indicating active but not extremely high engagement relative to major betting events
- Five major championships scheduled across 2026 create multiple resolution opportunities, increasing probability that eventually some player in the field will win
- Youth and experience mix among top-priced players (Gotterup 25, Rose 46, Young 27, Fitzpatrick 31, Scheffler 29) reflects different paths to major success

Contracts:
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Scottie Scheffler — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 53%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Xander Schauffele — 5¢ Kalshi $172 (weight 8%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Tommy Fleetwood — 4¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 9%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Matt Fitzpatrick — 3¢ Kalshi $516 (weight 23%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Justin Thomas — 3¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 4%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Joaquin Niemann — 3¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 3%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Collin Morikawa — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.515Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgamajorwin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20a%20PGA%20Tour%20Major%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev