47% — Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026
Leader: Scottie Scheffler at 47% · Kalshi 47% · 19 contracts · $857 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:20:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that an individual golfer will capture one of professional golf's five major championships in 2026. The 15% price on the leading contract indicates a competitive field where no single player is heavily favored, though Scottie Scheffler's 47¢ price shows market consensus around an elite performer. The probability would rise if a player demonstrates sustained form heading into spring majors or falls if injury, form decline, or inconsistent recent results diminish prospects. Major championships scheduled between April and July 2026 will sequentially resolve these outcomes, with the first major typically occurring in April. Trading volume and price dispersion across contracts suggest meaningful disagreement about who will win, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of major tournament results across multiple events.

Key factors:
- Scottie Scheffler prices at 47¢, nearly 10x higher than next-ranked players, indicating market recognition of recent major championship dominance
- Top five contracts span 5¢ to 47¢, showing substantial disagreement on winner identity and suggesting no overwhelming consensus
- 24-hour trading volumes are moderate (164–395 per contract), indicating active but not extremely high engagement relative to major betting events
- Five major championships scheduled across 2026 create multiple resolution opportunities, increasing probability that eventually some player in the field will win
- Youth and experience mix among top-priced players (Gotterup 25, Rose 46, Young 27, Fitzpatrick 31, Scheffler 29) reflects different paths to major success

Contracts:
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Scottie Scheffler — 47¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 8%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Cameron Young — 16¢ Kalshi $483 (weight 56%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Jon Rahm — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Xander Schauffele — 14¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Bryson DeChambeau — 14¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 2%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Ludvig Aberg — 12¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Matt Fitzpatrick — 11¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%)
- Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?: Tommy Fleetwood — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgamajorwin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20a%20PGA%20Tour%20Major%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev