83% — Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Leader: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 20 contracts · $234K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 00:18:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a PGA Tour golf tournament held annually in Louisiana, and the 6% probability reflects market expectations about a specific outcome related to this event—likely involving tournament winner prediction, venue-related betting, or New Orleans sports team performance coinciding with the tournament dates. The current low probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely given available information. Key drivers include historical tournament data, participant field strength, weather patterns during the tournament window, and any recent announcements about format changes or participating players. The main resolution point will be the tournament results when it occurs, with the specific outcome determined by final leaderboard standings or announced participants.

Key factors:
- Historical tournament results and winner patterns at the Zurich Classic dating back multiple years
- Quality and composition of the current PGA Tour player field committed to participate
- Weather forecasts and course conditions at TPC Louisiana for the tournament dates
- Recent form and rankings of the favorite contenders or specific players relevant to the bet
- Any announced changes to tournament format, sponsorship, or scheduling that could affect outcome likelihood

Contracts:
- U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler — 83¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 9%)
- U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy — 79¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 9%)
- U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young — 71¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 3%)
- U.S. Open: Will Patrick Reed make the cut?: Patrick Reed — 66¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 2%)
- U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?: Chris Gotterup — 61¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 5%)
- U.S. Open: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau — 59¢ Kalshi $34K (weight 15%)
- U.S. Open: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?: Brooks Koepka — 57¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 2%)
- U.S. Open: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?: Cameron Smith — 54¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 6%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T07:20:20.066Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgamakecut
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Zurich%20Classic%20of%20New%20Orleans
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev