20% — Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open
Kalshi 20% · 1 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:57 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 6% probability that the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will end with a playoff between tied players. Golf majors and regular tour events rarely require playoffs—most fields are large enough and scoring conditions varied enough that outright winners emerge. Playoff frequency depends on field strength, course setup, and weather conditions during the tournament. The 2026 event will occur in early July at Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Historical playoff rates across professional golf typically range from 2–5%, making 6% slightly elevated but still representing an uncommon outcome. The contract resolves definitively when the tournament concludes, based on whether the winner is determined by a playoff or standard scoring.

Key factors:
- Historical playoff frequency in professional golf events averages 2-5%, providing a baseline for whether 6% is above or below normal
- Course difficulty and setup at Renaissance Club in 2026 will affect scoring compression—tighter setups increase playoff probability, generous conditions reduce it
- Field size and participant caliber influence variance in final scores; larger, deeper fields make ties less probable than smaller or less competitive events
- Weather conditions during the 2026 tournament dates (early July in Scotland) will determine scoring difficulty and likelihood of tied leaders
- The specific playoff format rules established by the DP World Tour for the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will affect how scoring ties are resolved

Contracts:
- Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Wyndham Championship?: Playoff — 20¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T22:20:51.963Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgaplayoff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20playoff%20at%20the%202026%20Genesis%20Scottish%20Open
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev