5% — Will Harris English lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Kalshi 5% · 8 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:24:11 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Harris English will have the lowest score after 18 holes of the PGA Championship. The 5% probability reflects that English would need to outperform roughly 150 other competitors in a single round to lead. Harris English's historical performance at major championships and his current form relative to top-ranked players influence this estimate. The primary driver of the probability is his tournament history and season statistics compared to favorites like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Young, who occupy similar markets at higher probabilities. The contract resolves when the PGA Championship's opening round concludes and official scoring is finalized. Market activity for related contracts shows greater confidence in established top-10 ranked players leading after Round 1, suggesting a gap in perceived likelihood between English and leading competitors.

Key factors:
- Harris English's world ranking and recent tournament results compared to other competitors in the field
- Historical performance by English in major championships, particularly first-round scoring patterns
- Field size and competition depth at the PGA Championship versus English's baseline winning probability
- Current odds for top-ranked players like Scheffler (9¢) and McIlroy (8¢) to lead suggest English carries structural disadvantage
- Whether English qualifies for and enters the specific PGA Championship tournament being referenced

Contracts:
- Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Rory McIlroy — 8¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 17%)
- Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Cameron Young — 4¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 17%)
- Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Scottie Scheffler — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)
- Will Collin Morikawa lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Collin Morikawa — 3¢ Kalshi $510 (weight 12%)
- Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Ludvig Aberg — 3¢ Kalshi $368 (weight 11%)
- Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Matt Fitzpatrick — 5¢ Kalshi $216 (weight 10%)
- Will Bryson DeChambeau lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Bryson DeChambeau — 3¢ Kalshi $143 (weight 9%)
- Will Jon Rahm lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Jon Rahm — 4¢ Kalshi $96 (weight 9%)

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgar1lead
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Harris%20English%20lead%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Round%201%20in%20the%20PGA%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev