46% — Will Tie win the Solheim Cup
Kalshi 46% · 2 contracts · $35 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 07:48:10 UTC

Why this matters:
A 33% probability indicates the market estimates roughly one-in-three odds that the event will occur. The Solheim Cup is a biennial golf competition featuring teams of professional women golfers from Europe and the United States. Probability levels in prediction markets reflect aggregated expectations based on historical performance, current team composition, player form, and venue factors. Movements in this probability would typically result from significant changes in player rankings, recent tournament results, team roster announcements, or course-specific conditions that favor one team over another. The upcoming event date serves as the primary resolution point, with market participants continuously adjusting odds based on new information about player fitness, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head historical matchups between the competing sides.

Key factors:
- Historical win rates and recent performance trends of each team in Solheim Cup competitions
- Current world golf rankings and form of individual team members leading into the event
- Course setup and venue characteristics that may favor European or American playing styles
- Injury status or roster changes announced by either team before competition
- Recent international match play results and team dynamics from the season leading to the event

Contracts:
- Will United States win the Solheim Cup?: United States — 53¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 100%)
- Will Europe win the Solheim Cup?: Europe — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T07:20:50.829Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pgasolheim
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tie%20win%20the%20Solheim%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev