39% — Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 20 days
Leader: Above 15 days at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 3 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 12:59:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents whether the PJM power grid will experience 20 or more calendar days in 2026 when a NERC Emergency Alert Level 1 (capacity emergency) is in effect—a sign of severe electricity supply stress. The 36% probability reflects that while grid emergencies have become more frequent due to aging infrastructure and rising demand, reaching 20+ days would be unusually severe. The current reading depends on weather patterns (extreme heat drives demand), generation availability (retirements and maintenance outages), and demand growth across the region. Since we are already at mid-August, the count depends on whether remaining 2026 months—particularly September heat season and potential winter stress—trigger emergency conditions. The final resolution comes on January 1, 2027, when all 2026 calendar days are known.

Key factors:
- Heat-driven demand peaks in September-October 2026 will be the primary test; any major heatwaves with simultaneous generation outages increase emergency day counts
- Recent generation retirements in PJM (coal plant closures) have tightened the margin between supply and peak demand, raising baseline emergency frequency
- Winter 2026-27 represents the second critical window; extreme cold plus forced outages or fuel supply issues could trigger additional emergency alerts
- Historical context shows 20+ emergency days in a single year would match or exceed recent multi-year peaks, indicating markets price this as materially above baseline
- The threshold climbs from 10 to 15 to 20+ days with declining probability (94% → 63% → 36%), suggesting markets see a concentration of risk in moderate rather than extreme outcomes

Contracts:
- Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 15 days?: Above 15 days — 39¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 4%)
- Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 20 days?: Above 20 days — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 96%)
- Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 25 days?: Above 25 days — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:21:00.277Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pjmemergency
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20calendar%20days%20on%20which%20an%20RTO-wide%20PJM%20Maximum%20Generation%20Emergency%2FLoad%20Management%20Alert%20%E2%80%93%20Capacity%20Emergency%20%E2%80%93%20NERC%20EEA%201%20was%20applicable%20in%202026%20be%20above%2020%20days
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev