72% — Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026 Kalshi 72% · 6 contracts · $3.7M volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:47:10 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates a 57% chance that Graham Platner, a candidate in Maine's 2026 Senate election, will withdraw from the race before July 9, 2026—approximately 48 hours from now. The high probability reflects near-term resolution, with contract prices showing elevated expectations of withdrawal on very specific dates. Factors driving this include recent campaign developments, polling performance, or candidate circumstances that have triggered speculation about an imminent exit. The market appears to price in substantial uncertainty compressed into days rather than weeks, suggesting either recent news or an anticipated announcement. The resolution hinges on whether Platner formally announces a dropout or files withdrawal paperwork before the July 9 deadline. After July 9, the market will simply resolve to either yes or no based on documented withdrawal status, eliminating the current speculation around the precise timing of his decision. Key factors: - Market prices for earlier deadlines (72¢ for Jul 9) suggest meaningful probability of withdrawal within 48 hours rather than speculation about eventual exit - Contract pricing shows progressive increases for later deadlines (91¢ for Jul 14), indicating traders expect clarity by mid-July if not immediately - High trading volume in the Jul 14 contract ($2.1M in 24h) indicates significant market attention to this specific candidate race - If no withdrawal occurs by July 9, the market will immediately reprice based on new timeframe expectations - Platner's current campaign status, recent statements, and any disclosed health, family, or personal circumstances directly determine whether withdrawal is imminent or speculative Contracts: - Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 9, 2026?: Before Jul 9, 2026 — 40¢ Kalshi $1.4M (weight 38%) - Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?: Before Jul 14, 2026 — 92¢ Kalshi $1.3M (weight 35%) - Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026 — 64¢ Kalshi $455K (weight 12%) - Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 11, 2026?: Before Jul 11, 2026 — 73¢ Kalshi $350K (weight 9%) - Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026 — 85¢ Kalshi $109K (weight 3%) - Will drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 12, 2026?: Before Jul 12, 2026 — 80¢ Kalshi $100K (weight 3%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T00:20:50.153Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/platnerdropout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20drop%20out%20of%20the%202026%20United%20States%20Senate%20election%20in%20Maine%20before%20Jul%209%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev