96% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026
Leader: Before Jul 14, 2026 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 4 contracts · $116K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 94% probability that Graham Platner's withdrawal from the Maine Senate race will be officially reported before July 14, 2026. This high probability reflects strong conviction that an announcement is imminent, with the deadline just days away. The market distinguishes between earlier withdrawal dates—assigning just 21% probability to withdrawal by July 11 and 25% by July 12—suggesting traders expect the announcement around July 13 or early July 14. Key factors likely driving this view include recent candidate statements, filing deadlines, or reported negotiations within Maine political circles. The primary uncertainty is the exact timing of any potential announcement rather than whether withdrawal occurs at all. Conviction this strong typically reflects either material private information circulating among traders or extraordinary public developments making withdrawal nearly certain.

Key factors:
- The 94% probability for before July 14 versus only 21% for before July 11 indicates traders expect withdrawal announcement between July 12-14 rather than today or tomorrow
- 24-hour trading volume concentration ($23,123 on the July 14 contract) suggests recent significant information flow or consensus shift among market participants
- Multi-contract structure allows precise dating expectations; the gradient from 21% to 94% across 4-day window is steeper than normal candidate uncertainty patterns
- July 14 represents a natural deadline (likely campaign filing or registration cutoff) that would explain the specific probability cliff at that date
- Market pricing this high typically emerges from candidate communications, party coordination announcements, or filed legal documents rather than pure speculation

Contracts:
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 14, 2026?: Before Jul 14, 2026 — 96¢ Kalshi $59K (weight 51%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026 — 16¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 20%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 12, 2026?: Before Jul 12, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 12%)
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026?: Before Jul 11, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 16%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-11T19:20:51.140Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/platnerofficialwithdraw-27
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20Graham%20Platner%20officially%20withdraws%20from%20the%20Maine%20Senate%20race%20before%20Jul%2011%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev