13% — Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $111 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:21 UTC Why this matters: Denver Outlaws have a 13% implied probability of winning the 2026 PLL Championship, meaning the market assigns them roughly 1-in-8 odds. This places them fourth among tracked teams, behind Philadelphia Waterdogs (16%), New York Atlas (18%), and significantly ahead of Utah Archers (4%). The Outlaws' positioning likely reflects their roster strength and historical performance relative to competitors, though the championship outcome depends heavily on regular-season results through the summer, playoff seeding, and match-up dynamics in August's playoff tournament. The low trading volume on this contract ($0 in 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Final resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 PLL season when the championship winner is determined. Key factors: - Denver's regular-season win-loss record and playoff seeding position, which directly determine tournament matchups and path to the championship - Head-to-head performance against Philadelphia (16% odds) and New York (18% odds) in regular-season contests, signaling relative team strength - Injury status of key Outlaws players through the season, particularly defenders and the starting goaltender, affecting roster availability for playoffs - The complete PLL playoff bracket structure and tournament format, which determines whether Denver faces higher-seeded favorites early or has a favorable path - Comparative odds movement for other PLL teams, indicating whether market confidence is shifting toward or away from Denver relative to the field Contracts: - Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Denver Outlaws — 15¢ Kalshi $94 (weight 85%) - Will Maryland Whipsnakes win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Maryland Whipsnakes — 10¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 8%) - Will Philadelphia Waterdogs win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Philadelphia Waterdogs — 14¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 7%) - Will Boston Cannons win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Boston Cannons — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will California Redwoods win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: California Redwoods — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carolina Chaos win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Carolina Chaos — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will New York Atlas win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: New York Atlas — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Utah Archers win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Utah Archers — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:10.005Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pll Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Denver%20Outlaws%20win%20the%202026%20Premier%20Lacrosse%20League%20(PLL)%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev