6% — Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship
Kalshi 6% · 2 contracts · $23 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:53 UTC

Why this matters:
Denver Outlaws have a 13% implied probability of winning the 2026 PLL Championship, meaning the market assigns them roughly 1-in-8 odds. This places them fourth among tracked teams, behind Philadelphia Waterdogs (16%), New York Atlas (18%), and significantly ahead of Utah Archers (4%). The Outlaws' positioning likely reflects their roster strength and historical performance relative to competitors, though the championship outcome depends heavily on regular-season results through the summer, playoff seeding, and match-up dynamics in August's playoff tournament. The low trading volume on this contract ($0 in 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Final resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 PLL season when the championship winner is determined.

Key factors:
- Denver's regular-season win-loss record and playoff seeding position, which directly determine tournament matchups and path to the championship
- Head-to-head performance against Philadelphia (16% odds) and New York (18% odds) in regular-season contests, signaling relative team strength
- Injury status of key Outlaws players through the season, particularly defenders and the starting goaltender, affecting roster availability for playoffs
- The complete PLL playoff bracket structure and tournament format, which determines whether Denver faces higher-seeded favorites early or has a favorable path
- Comparative odds movement for other PLL teams, indicating whether market confidence is shifting toward or away from Denver relative to the field

Contracts:
- Will Utah Archers win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Utah Archers — 7¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 73%)
- Will California Redwoods win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: California Redwoods — 4¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 27%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.522Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pll
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Denver%20Outlaws%20win%20the%202026%20Premier%20Lacrosse%20League%20(PLL)%20Championship
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev