92% — Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 20.8 million total membership in Q1 2026
Leader: Above 21.2 million at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 6 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents a 93% probability that Planet Fitness will report total membership above 20.8 million when it releases Q1 2026 results, based on trading activity on Kalshi. The high confidence reflects the company's historical membership trajectory and recent growth patterns, though the exact threshold of 20.8 million creates a narrow band where outcomes can shift. Resolution depends on Planet Fitness's earnings announcement, scheduled for mid-May 2026, which will provide the official membership count. Key drivers include membership retention rates during economic cycles, pricing adjustments implemented in late 2025, and competitive expansion by other fitness chains. The small gap between the leading contract (93%) and runner-up (92%) suggests traders view the outcome as highly likely but not certain, with sensitivity to any guidance changes or membership churn announcements preceding the official report.

Key factors:
- Planet Fitness's reported membership trend through late 2024 and early 2025, which would establish the baseline trajectory for Q1 2026
- Churn rates and net member additions during Q1 2026, influenced by seasonality and economic conditions
- Any interim guidance or pre-earnings commentary the company provided about membership expectations
- Competitive pressures from other budget fitness chains and their reported membership growth during the same period
- The specific threshold of 20.8 million versus historical growth rates—determining whether this represents a continuation of trends or a material acceleration

Contracts:
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.2 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.2 million — 92¢ Kalshi $825 (weight 13%)
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21 million — 88¢ Kalshi $903 (weight 15%)
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.6 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.6 million — 86¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 27%)
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 20.8 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 20.8 million — 10¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 2%)
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 21.8 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 21.8 million — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 26%)
- Will Planet Fitness Inc. report Above 22 million total membership in Q1 2026?: Above 22 million — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%)

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/plnt
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