89% — Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 1060 at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-09 08:03:27 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects traders' assessment that Palantir will report more than 1,060 total customers by Q3 2026. The prediction sits at 89%, indicating high confidence in reaching this customer threshold. Palantir's ability to cross this milestone depends primarily on its enterprise sales execution and customer acquisition pace in the first half of 2026. The market has already priced in 1,060 customers as highly likely; meaningful uncertainty emerges only above 1,070 customers, where conviction drops to 85%. The key driver is whether the company maintains or accelerates its recent customer growth rate—Palantir must add a net 50+ customers per quarter to stay on pace. Resolution occurs in late 2026 when Palantir reports third-quarter financial results and customer metrics. Key factors: - Palantir's reported customer count at Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 earnings, compared against historical quarterly net-adds of 40-60 customers - Enterprise segment revenue trends and win rates in Fortune 500 accounts during H1 2026, which correlate with total customer count - Management guidance or revised customer growth outlook during mid-2026 earnings calls or investor presentations - Customer churn or retention rates, particularly among smaller or lower-tier customers that affect total headcount - The competitive landscape—whether alternative vendors gain share in government/commercial sectors during 2026 Contracts: - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1060 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1060 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1070 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1070 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1080 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1080 — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1090 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1090 — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1100 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1100 — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1110 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1110 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1120 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1120 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1130 total customers in Q3 2026?: Above 1130 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-09T07:20:52.230Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pltr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Palantir%20Technologies%20Inc.%20report%20above%201020%20total%20customers%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev