96% — Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 1040 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 9 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-26 06:38:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction indicates an expectation that Palantir will report at least 1,020 customers when it releases Q1 2026 results. The 96% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome based on recent customer growth trends. Palantir has demonstrated consistent customer acquisition momentum, particularly in government and commercial sectors. The key driver supporting this level is the company's recent quarterly reports showing steady customer additions. A downside scenario would require a significant slowdown in sales conversion or customer expansion that hasn't been reflected in recent disclosures. The resolution occurs when Palantir publishes its official Q1 2026 earnings report, which typically happens in May or early June 2026. Market participants are pricing in continued execution rather than exceptional growth, suggesting the bar of 1,020 customers is viewed as achievable given recent performance trends. Key factors: - Palantir's most recent quarterly customer count and historical growth rate trajectory - Customer acquisition velocity in government contracts versus commercial expansion efforts - Churn or customer retention rates that would offset new additions - Timing and visibility of large commercial or government deals that contribute to annual customer growth - Difference between reported customer count (how Palantir defines a customer) versus actual bookings or AUM growth Contracts: - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1040 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1040 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1050 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1050 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1060 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1060 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1065 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1065 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1070 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1070 — 40¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 100%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1075 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1075 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1080 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1080 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report above 1090 total customers in Q2 2026?: Above 1090 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-26T06:20:50.920Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pltr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Palantir%20Technologies%20Inc.%20report%20above%201020%20total%20customers%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev