92% — Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1100 total customer count in 2026 Leader: Above 1100 at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 11 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:02:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: Palantir Technologies is currently priced to have above 1,100 total customers by the end of 2026 with 96% confidence, reflecting strong market expectations for customer growth. The company's two main operating segments—government and commercial—have different growth trajectories, with commercial adoption historically accelerating but from a smaller base. Factors supporting this probability include Palantir's established government relationships, recent commercial platform investments, and multi-year customer acquisition patterns. The key uncertainty is whether commercial customer onboarding sustains current momentum or faces integration headwinds. Resolution will come when Palantir reports 2026 full-year results, typically in early 2027, officially disclosing total customer count. The probability curve shows meaningful differentiation between 1,100 and 1,240 customers (from 96¢ to 17¢), indicating substantive disagreement about upside scenarios despite general confidence in the baseline threshold. Key factors: - Palantir reported approximately 558 government customers and 151 commercial customers as of late 2024; reaching 1,100+ requires cumulative growth of 290+ net new customers across both segments over 18 months - Commercial customer adds have accelerated in recent quarters but remain smaller than government base; the market is pricing moderate attrition against ongoing new customer wins - Government customer growth has historically been steady but not exponential; most gains would need to come from commercial segment expansion, which carries higher execution risk - Kalshi contracts show sharp probability drops at higher thresholds (96% for 1,100 vs 87% for 1,120), suggesting concentrated uncertainty in a narrow band rather than binary risk - 2026 year-end earnings disclosure in early 2027 will provide definitive customer count, making this resolvable on a specific near-term date Contracts: - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1100 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1100 — 92¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 56%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1120 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1120 — 90¢ Kalshi $212 (weight 6%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1140 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1140 — 82¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 2%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1160 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1160 — 73¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 9%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1180 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1180 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1200 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1200 — 45¢ Kalshi $418 (weight 12%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1220 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1220 — 30¢ Kalshi $306 (weight 9%) - Will Palantir Technologies Inc. report Above 1240 total customer count in 2026?: Above 1240 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.362Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pltra Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Palantir%20Technologies%20Inc.%20report%20Above%201100%20total%20customer%20count%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev