25% — Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC
Leader: 85+ wins at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:15:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 season, based on three linked contracts with minimal recent trading activity. This threshold sits between typical regular season win totals for mid-tier playoff contenders and rebuilding teams. The probability is primarily driven by San Diego's current roster composition and injury status, with upward pressure if the team performs better than preseason expectations and downward pressure if early-season results fall short. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be performance through the first 50-60 games of the season, which typically establishes a team's competitive trajectory and win-pace trajectory. Secondary contracts priced at 20¢ (85+ wins) and 7¢ (90+ wins) suggest the market distinguishes between different win thresholds but assigns notably lower confidence to sustained excellence.

Key factors:
- San Diego's projected win total based on preseason power ratings and roster evaluation relative to the 85-game threshold
- Early season win-loss record through June-July 2026, which determines whether the team is tracking toward or away from 85 wins at the current pace
- Health and performance of key position players, particularly starting rotation and primary offensive contributors
- Direct competition within the NL West; divisional race dynamics affect playoff positioning and late-season urgency that influences final win total
- The 20¢ contract price for 85+ wins versus the 19% headline price suggests significant uncertainty between win-total tiers

Contracts:
- Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.828Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Portland%20Thorns%20FC%20vs.%20San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev