25% — Portland Thorns FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets
Leader: 85+ wins at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:15:50 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 19% probability reflects the likelihood that San Diego wins at least 85 games in the 2026 MLB season. The significant 20-percentage-point gap between prediction markets suggests disagreement about San Diego's roster strength and competitive positioning. Key drivers include the team's recent offseason moves, injury status of core players, and early-season performance trends. The main uncertainty will resolve through the regular season as actual win-loss records accumulate; by mid-September, the market would converge toward certainty based on whether San Diego is tracking toward 85 wins. Current pricing reflects mixed assessments of the Padres' 2026 competitiveness relative to NL West rivals.

Key factors:
- San Diego's opening-day roster composition and payroll allocation versus division competitors like the Dodgers and Giants
- Kalshi showing 57¢ on 85+ wins suggests internal market confidence significantly higher than the 19% aggregate, indicating possible liquidity or timing differences
- Early 2026 season win-loss record through May and June will provide concrete data to either confirm or invalidate the 85-win projection
- Injury status of San Diego's key position players and starting pitchers, which directly impacts win probability over a 162-game season
- The 20-percentage-point venue gap indicates fundamental disagreement on assessment methodology or contract design between Kalshi and Polymarket

Contracts:
- Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:48.767Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/portland-thorns-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Portland%20Thorns%20FC%20vs.%20San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev