81% — Portugal vs. Uzbekistan
Leader: Portugal at 81% · Polymarket 81% · 3 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:34:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectation that Portugal will finish ahead of Uzbekistan in their competition. At 75%, the market is pricing Portugal as a clear favorite, though not overwhelming. The current assessment likely reflects Portugal's stronger recent form and higher FIFA ranking compared to Uzbekistan, balanced against Uzbekistan's home advantage or recent competitive results. The main factors supporting the higher probability are Portugal's established strength in international competition, while Uzbekistan's chances depend on their ability to exploit home conditions or exploit defensive vulnerabilities. The probability will shift significantly based on team lineups, injury reports, and any recent performance data emerging before the match. Market liquidity is concentrated in the Portugal contracts, suggesting high confidence in that outcome compared to alternatives.

Key factors:
- Portugal holds a 76¢ contract price on Polymarket compared to 12¢ for Uzbekistan in direct matchup markets, indicating consistent directional confidence
- Trading volume concentrates almost entirely on Portugal vs. DR Congo ($378 24h), while Uzbekistan contracts show minimal volume, suggesting lower conviction or uncertainty in peripheral matchups
- The 75% probability carries a 17% runner-up alternative, indicating the market retains material doubt rather than viewing Portugal as dominant
- Runner-up contract at 41¢ (DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan) suggests market uncertainty about Uzbekistan's competitive standing across multiple potential pairings
- Minimal trading activity on Uzbekistan contracts ($0 volume) could indicate either strong consensus or insufficient liquidity to attract deeper analysis

Contracts:
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal — 81¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 29%)
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw (Portugal vs. Uzbekistan) — 14¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 28%)
- Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan — 7¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 43%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/portugal-vs-uzbekistan
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Portugal%20vs.%20Uzbekistan
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev