76% — What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony Leader: Inflation at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 17 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:33:25 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Jerome Powell will mention inflation during his acceptance remarks at the Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony. The 64% leading contract reflects market participants' assessment that Powell will address inflation in his speech, based on its relevance to his tenure and recent economic conditions. The main driver of this probability is the nature of Powell's role as Federal Reserve Chair during a period of significant inflation management, making it a natural topic for acceptance remarks. Market uncertainty around the final content of Powell's speech—which depends on his specific focus and framing—represents the counterbalancing factor. The speech is scheduled for May 31, 2026, providing the resolution event. Volume concentration in the "President" contract (59¢, $265) suggests market focus on formal framing, while the "Recession" and "Crypto" contracts at lower prices indicate skepticism about more speculative topics appearing in the remarks. Key factors: - Powell's Federal Reserve tenure has been defined substantially by inflation management from 2021-2026, making it a natural reference point in acceptance remarks - The Kennedy Profile in Courage Award ceremony typically features formal, institutional remarks focused on leadership challenges and policy decisions rather than technical specifics - The "Inflation" contract at 64% trades notably higher than "Recession" (27¢) and "Crypto" (7¢), suggesting the market sees inflation as more central to Powell's likely narrative than other economic topics - Resolution depends entirely on the exact text of Powell's May 31 remarks; market-maker pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about his chosen emphasis - High volume in the "President" contract indicates market focus on formality level and tone, which may correlate with whether Powell discusses substantive policy topics Contracts: - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Inflation — 76¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Political / Politics — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Dual Mandate — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Pandemic — 59¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 1%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: President — 52¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 68%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Good Evening — 34¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 5%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: AI / Artificial Intelligence — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony?: Recession — 26¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 2%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.799Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/powellmention Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Jerome%20Powell%20say%20during%20Acceptance%20Remarks%20At%20the%20John%20F.%20Kennedy%20Profile%20in%20Courage%20Award%20Ceremony Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev