3% — Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 20, 2026
Kalshi 3% · 1 contracts · $280 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:04:31 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents traders' assessment that Jerome Powell will step down as Federal Reserve Chair before June 1, 2026—currently priced at 91%. Powell's tenure as Chair has faced periodic political pressure, though he was reappointed to a second term in 2022 and is scheduled to serve until 2026. The high probability reflects either imminent personnel changes or specific near-term events traders expect. Key drivers of this estimate would be public statements from the administration, congressional actions, health developments, or unexpected policy conflicts. The resolution depends on formal announcement or confirmation of Powell's departure. Notably, contracts pricing exits before May 20, 22, and 31 show much lower probabilities (18-59%), suggesting traders see the June 1 deadline as capturing most anticipated near-term risk while expecting Powell to likely remain in the immediate days ahead.

Key factors:
- Powell's Fed Chair term is constitutionally slated through 2026, with no announced resignation or replacement candidate as of mid-May 2026
- The sharp probability drop from 91% (before June 1) to 27% (before May 20) indicates traders expect most potential exits, if any, clustered near the deadline rather than imminent
- 24-hour trading volume concentrates on the June 1 contract ($2,126) versus earlier dates, suggesting this timeframe captures primary uncertainty about Powell's status
- No scheduled congressional confirmation votes, public health announcements, or policy crises have been reported as catalysts for the elevated probability
- The outcome depends on formal resignation, removal, or death—verifiable events with minimal ambiguity in resolution

Contracts:
- Will Jerome Powell be out as Chair pro tempore of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 22, 2026?: Before May 22, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $280 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-23T13:20:18.502Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/powellprotemp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jerome%20Powell%20be%20out%20as%20Chair%20pro%20tempore%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Governors%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20System%20before%20May%2020%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev