83% — Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for May 2026 be above 19.0¢
Leader: Above 19.2¢ at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 11:22:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether the U.S. city-average electricity price will exceed 19.0¢ per kilowatt-hour in May 2026. The 82% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated above this threshold. Markets are pricing in persistent upward pressure on electricity costs, though the declining probabilities at higher price tiers (75% at 19.4¢, 64% at 19.6¢, 49% at 20.0¢) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how high prices will actually climb. The outcome will depend on natural gas prices, demand levels, generation capacity utilization, and any regulatory changes during the spring months. Electricity prices are settled based on actual EIA or other official data reported for May 2026, typically released in mid-June 2026. Market participants are essentially betting that current cost pressures remain significant enough to keep the city-average rate in the higher range rather than falling back below the 19.0¢ mark.

Key factors:
- Natural gas prices during April-May 2026 will be a primary driver, since gas typically fuels 30-40% of U.S. electricity generation and tracks closely with wholesale electricity costs
- Demand patterns in May (cooling-related usage) and prevailing generation capacity utilization across interconnects will determine whether supply constraints sustain high prices
- The probability gradient (82% at 19.0¢ down to 49% at 20.0¢) indicates markets see a clustering of outcomes in the 19.2-19.6¢ range rather than extreme highs or lows
- EIA will publish official May 2026 city-average electricity prices in mid-June 2026, creating a single unambiguous settlement date with no subjective interpretation required
- Renewable generation levels and fuel-mix availability during the period will affect marginal cost of electricity production and overall average pricing

Contracts:
- Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.2¢?: Above 19.2¢ — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.6¢?: Above 19.6¢ — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.4¢?: Above 19.4¢ — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.0¢?: Above 19.0¢ — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.717Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/powerkwh
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20average%20price%20of%20electricity%20per%20kilowatt-hour%20in%20the%20U.S.%20city%20average%20for%20May%202026%20be%20above%2019.0%C2%A2
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev