17% — Will Manchester City win the English Premier League
Kalshi 17% · 6 contracts · $311 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:57 UTC

Why this matters:
Manchester City is currently priced at 16% to win the English Premier League, indicating a significant decrease in their title prospects compared to historical performance. This probability reflects market expectations based on recent team performance, injury status, managerial continuity, and competitive positioning relative to Liverpool (8%), Arsenal (37%), and Chelsea (7%). The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are likely Manchester City's performance trajectory this season and how that compares to rival teams' strength. Key upcoming resolution points include the final matches of the current Premier League season, where points totals will become increasingly difficult to alter and teams' final standings will determine the winner.

Key factors:
- Manchester City's current points total and goal differential compared to Liverpool and Arsenal as of mid-June 2026
- Win rate and remaining fixtures: how many games Manchester City has left versus direct title competitors and relative difficulty of those fixtures
- Recent form and consistency: Manchester City's performance in the last 10-15 matches relative to their historical seasonal average
- Squad depth and injury status: availability of key players and whether critical absences are temporary or season-long
- Historical odds correlation: whether this 16% figure aligns with Manchester City's actual points gap to the leader and mathematical probability of closing it

Contracts:
- Will Chelsea win the English Premier League?: Chelsea — 9¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 90%)
- Will Arsenal win the English Premier League?: Arsenal — 37¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 10%)
- Will Coventry City win the English Premier League?: Coventry City — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Liverpool win the English Premier League?: Liverpool — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Manchester City win the English Premier League?: Manchester City — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Manchester United win the English Premier League?: Manchester United — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.694Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/premierleague
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Manchester%20City%20win%20the%20English%20Premier%20League
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev