32% — Will Team USA win the Presidents Cup
Kalshi 32% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 08:18:44 UTC

Why this matters:
This 29% probability reflects market expectations that Team USA will win the Presidents Cup golf tournament. The market is pricing in Team World as the favorite, based on recent competitive balance between the teams and home-course advantages that vary by tournament location. The Presidents Cup typically occurs biennially in odd-numbered years; the upcoming event date and venue will be the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, as host-nation advantages and current player form significantly influence outcomes. Team composition, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head records between teams historically drive pricing shifts in the weeks leading to the event.

Key factors:
- Presidents Cup matchups have shown competitive balance in recent years, with neither team establishing consistent dominance—recent tournament results would indicate if one side has gained an advantage
- Home-course effects materially impact team sports outcomes; the tournament venue location (whether held in the U.S., International, or neutral ground) directly affects win probability
- Current world golf rankings and player availability determine roster strength; injuries, form changes, or ranking shifts among top 50 players would move probability estimates
- Historical head-to-head records between Teams USA and World provide baseline reference points; recent matches have ranged from close competitions to decisive margins
- Tournament timing and preparation windows affect performance; proximity to major championships and player fatigue levels influence competitive readiness

Contracts:
- Will Team USA win the Presidents Cup?: Team USA — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Team World win the Presidents Cup?: Team World — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Team USA and Team World tie in the Presidents Cup?: Tie — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.732Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/prescup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Team%20USA%20win%20the%20Presidents%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev