17% — Presidential Election Winner 2028
Leader: JD Vance at 17% · Polymarket 17% · 2 contracts · $28K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 19:30:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Gavin Newsom has an 18% chance of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election. The current level suggests traders view him as a meaningful but not dominant contender among potential candidates. Market prices reflect uncertainty about candidate field formation, primary outcomes, and general election dynamics still years away. Key drivers of this probability include Newsom's recent national profile and policy positions, weighed against questions about primary viability and general election electability. The field remains highly fragmented, with the top candidate claiming only 18% odds—indicating substantial uncertainty. Upcoming factors that could shift these odds include formal candidate announcements, major legislative outcomes, economic data affecting incumbent party prospects, and early primary voting when it occurs in 2027-2028.

Key factors:
- Newsom's 18% probability ranks first among six tracked candidates, yet represents only 18 cents on the dollar, indicating very high uncertainty about the eventual nominee
- Trading volume on Newsom contracts ($27,375 in 24 hours) is substantial but comparable to other candidates, suggesting reasoned disagreement rather than consensus
- The contract structure captures only six specific individuals; market-wide probabilities for 'any Democrat' or 'any Republican' would show how much uncertainty derives from candidate selection versus general election factors
- No scheduled primary voting occurs until early 2027, meaning current pricing reflects long-term expectations about candidate viability and party dynamics rather than near-term electoral data
- Newsom's proximity to Trump (3¢) and Carlson (4¢) in market odds suggests these contracts price narrative momentum and media attention as much as structural electoral advantages

Contracts:
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: JD Vance — 17¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 50%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Marco Rubio — 16¢ Polymarket $14K (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/presidential-election-winner-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Presidential%20Election%20Winner%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev