7% — Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Kalshi 7% · 10 contracts · $74K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 10:15:05 UTC Why this matters: This 8% probability reflects the likelihood that James Talarico, a Texas state representative, becomes the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2028. The current valuation sits between established figures like Kamala Harris (10%) and mid-tier candidates like Jon Ossoff (8%), suggesting markets see him as a long-shot contender. Talarico's relatively low probability reflects limited national prominence compared to governors, senators, and sitting vice presidents typically considered frontrunners. The main factors driving this level are his lack of executive experience at the federal level and lower name recognition outside Texas. The probability would increase if he gains significant media attention, wins statewide office, or performs notably in early primary contests. Primary election results in Iowa and New Hampshire in early 2028 will serve as major catalysts for resolving uncertainty about all Democratic candidates' viability, including lesser-known figures like Talarico. Key factors: - Talarico holds a Texas state house seat with no statewide or federal executive experience, distinguishing him from higher-probability candidates who are governors or senators - His 8% probability matches Jon Ossoff's despite Ossoff being a sitting U.S. Senator, suggesting limited market confidence in Talarico's nomination prospects - Primary elections in Iowa (early February 2028) and New Hampshire will provide concrete evidence of candidate viability and voter support - The Democratic nominee will likely emerge from established national figures, with the top five long-shot candidates (Harris, Ossoff, Kelly, Emanuel, Pritzker) collectively representing similar odds to fringe candidates - Talarico would need significant intervening events—major legislative achievement, statewide campaign success, or breakthrough national media presence—to materially shift his probability upward Contracts: - Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Pete Buttigieg — 5¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 24%) - Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel — 5¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 17%) - Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 21¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 14%) - Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Andy Beshear — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 10%) - Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Jon Ossoff — 8¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 8%) - Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 7%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 10¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%) - Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Josh Shapiro — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 5%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.354Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/presnomd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20James%20Talarico%20be%20the%20Democratic%20Presidential%20nominee%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev