9% — Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028 Kalshi 9% · 8 contracts · $133K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:21:37 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents a 8% estimated chance that Texas State Representative James Talarico becomes the Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election. The assessment reflects that while Talarico has served in the Texas legislature and maintains a progressive profile, he remains substantially less recognized nationally than leading contenders like Kamala Harris (9¢), Jon Ossoff (14¢), and Gavin Newsom (16¢). The probability could increase if Talarico gains significant national media attention, secures major endorsements, or successfully builds a campaign infrastructure. Conversely, it could decline if other Democratic figures consolidate support or if Talarico faces competitive pressures within his own state. The Democratic nomination process will crystallize through 2027 primary contests, early state campaigns, and party coalition-building, with Iowa caucuses and early primaries likely serving as key uncertainty-resolving events in late 2027 and early 2028. Key factors: - Talarico's national profile remains minimal compared to other candidates—he represents a single Texas state legislative district with limited prior statewide or federal office experience - Trading volume and contract pricing across comparable candidates (Harris 9¢, Ossoff 14¢, Newsom 16¢) suggest market participants view him as a significantly longer-odds nominee - No documented major national political organization, Super PAC backing, or significant fundraising base has been publicly associated with a Talarico presidential campaign - Primary results from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina between January-March 2028 will serve as the primary catalyst to validate or invalidate this probability estimate - Talarico would need to demonstrate measurable movement in early-state polling or secure endorsements from established Democratic party figures to shift market pricing materially upward Contracts: - Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 16¢ Kalshi $47K (weight 35%) - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 14¢ Kalshi $28K (weight 21%) - Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Andy Beshear — 4¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 11%) - Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Kamala Harris — 9¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 10%) - Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Jon Ossoff — 14¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 8%) - Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Rahm Emanuel — 5¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 6%) - Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Mark Kelly — 6¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 5%) - Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: J.B. Pritzker — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.328Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/presnomd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20James%20Talarico%20be%20the%20Democratic%20Presidential%20nominee%20in%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev