12% — Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $12K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the current market assessment that Donald J. Trump has a 14% chance of becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee. The low probability suggests markets are pricing in significant headwinds for a Trump nomination, likely reflecting his current legal situation, age considerations, and potential party preferences for alternative candidates. Key factors that could move this probability include changes in his legal status, shifts in Republican primary endorsements, or major statements from party leadership. The outcome will ultimately be determined by delegate counts and formal nomination voting at the Republican National Convention, with the nomination process timeline extending through summer 2026. Key factors: - Trump's current legal exposure and any major developments in ongoing cases that could affect his electability calculus - Republican primary results and delegate commitments, which would indicate party preference among voters - Public statements from major Republican figures regarding their preferred nominee and whether they actively support or oppose Trump - Historical precedent regarding candidates facing legal challenges seeking major party nominations in modern primary contests - Convention delegate allocation rules and whether any rule changes are proposed that could affect nomination outcomes Contracts: - Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Tucker Carlson — 6¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 41%) - Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio — 29¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 22%) - Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Thomas Massie — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%) - Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 11%) - Will Ron DeSantis be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Ron DeSantis — 5¢ Kalshi $824 (weight 7%) - Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $770 (weight 7%) - Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 1%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.932Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/presnomr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20be%20the%20nominee%20for%20the%20Presidency%20for%20the%20Republican%20party Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev