19% — Who will win the next presidential election Leader: Marco Rubio at 19% · Kalshi 19% · 10 contracts · $46K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:48 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: J.D. Vance is currently priced at 18% to win the 2028 presidential election, making him the leading candidate among markets tracking this outcome. This probability reflects traders' assessment of his viability as a general election candidate relative to other potential nominees from both parties. The current level is influenced by Vance's position within Republican politics and market perception of Democratic alternatives. Near-term factors that could shift this probability include major political developments, polling changes, or clarifying events regarding other candidates' viability. The outcome ultimately depends on nomination contests in 2028 and subsequent general election dynamics, though the market currently suggests substantial uncertainty with multiple candidates clustered in the 15-18% range. Key factors: - J.D. Vance's 18% price is only 2 percentage points ahead of Gavin Newsom (16%) and 3 points above Marco Rubio (15%), indicating high fragmentation rather than consensus favorite - 24-hour trading volume for Newsom ($11,963) significantly exceeds volume for Vance ($7,677), suggesting more active positioning in alternative candidates - The combined price of top five candidates totals roughly 57%, leaving 43% for all other potential nominees—indicating material uncertainty about the eventual nominee - Donald Trump is priced at only 3% despite recent political prominence, while Kamala Harris is at 5%, showing markets heavily discount recent officeholders - The 2028 nomination contests have not yet occurred, and no formal candidacies are established, making current prices highly responsive to political developments and early polling shifts Contracts: - Who will win the next presidential election?: Marco Rubio — 19¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 30%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: J.D. Vance — 18¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Gavin Newsom — 13¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Jon Ossoff — 8¢ Kalshi $856 (weight 2%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 7¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 27%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Kamala Harris — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Andy Beshear — 3¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 13%) - Who will win the next presidential election?: Pete Buttigieg — 3¢ Kalshi $881 (weight 2%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.086Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/presperson Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20next%20presidential%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev