83% — Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%
Leader: Andy Biggs, ≥35% at 83% · Kalshi 83% · 11 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary with a margin between 30% and 40%. The 79% price suggests high confidence in this outcome occurring, though notably lower conviction than some other electoral markets. The primary driver of this probability is likely Platner's current positioning and name recognition within Maine's Democratic electorate, while uncertainty around late-breaking endorsements, turnout patterns, and competing candidates could shift the margin significantly. The resolution will depend on the actual vote distribution when Maine holds its primary election. Key factors that would move this probability include shifts in recent polling data on Platner's support levels, changes in the primary field that alter competitive dynamics, and any substantial campaign developments affecting voter enthusiasm or consolidation around alternatives.

Key factors:
- Platner's current polling margin relative to nearest challenger and the stability of that lead
- Turnout expectations in a Maine Democratic primary and whether that favors any particular candidate
- Whether late endorsements or campaign events consolidate support around Platner or fragment the vote
- The number and viability of competing candidates remaining in the race
- Changes in registered Democratic voter composition or turnout modeling that could affect final margin distribution

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Andy Biggs in the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary be above 35%?: Andy Biggs, ≥35% — 83¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Andy Biggs in the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary be above 30%?: Andy Biggs, ≥30% — 81¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 1%)
- Will the margin of victory for Andy Biggs in the 2026 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary be above 40%?: Andy Biggs, ≥40% — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff be above 3%?: Julia Letlow, ≥3% — 68¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%)
- Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff be above 6%?: Julia Letlow, ≥6% — 56¢ Kalshi $367 (weight 5%)
- Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff be above 9%?: Julia Letlow, ≥9% — 40¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 30%)
- Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary be above 15%?: Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15% — 33¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 3%)
- Will the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate runoff be above 12%?: Julia Letlow, ≥12% — 24¢ Kalshi $596 (weight 8%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.794Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primarymov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Graham%20Platner%20in%20the%202026%20Maine%20Democratic%20Senate%20primary%20be%20between%2030%25%20and%2040%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev