38% — Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%
Leader: Francesca Hong, ≥15% at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 10 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 11:47:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Graham Platner will win the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary by a margin between 30% and 40%. The current 42% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome band among market participants. The price depends primarily on expectations about the primary field's competitiveness—whether Platner emerges as a clear front-runner with substantial but not overwhelming support, or whether the race fragments into closer competition or a landslide. The Maine Democratic primary election, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this question by revealing Platner's actual winning margin against his opponents. Until then, shifts in polling data, endorsements, campaign momentum, and field dynamics could move this probability in either direction.

Key factors:
- Platner's current standing in Maine Democratic primary polling relative to main opponents and overall field size
- Whether consolidated endorsements or strategic candidate withdrawals occur that would shift vote share concentration
- Total number and viability of competing Democratic candidates—fewer viable candidates make extreme margins more likely
- Recent polling trend direction and margin of error in Maine Democratic electorate samples
- Scheduled primary election date of June 2026 and any intervening events that might affect turnout or candidate viability

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be at least 15%?: Francesca Hong, ≥15% — 38¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 60%)
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary be between 0% and 5%?: Darline Graham, 0-5% — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 7%)
- Will the margin of victory for Lisa Demuth in the 2026 Minnesota Republican gubernatorial primary be between 3% and 6%?: Lisa Demuth, 3-6% — 18¢ Kalshi $747 (weight 3%)
- Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary be between 5% and 10%?: Darline Graham, 5-10% — 17¢ Kalshi $822 (weight 3%)
- Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 9% and 12%?: Francesca Hong, 9-12% — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will the margin of victory for Ralph Norman in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary be between 0% and 5%?: Ralph Norman, 0-5% — 14¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 12% and 15%?: Francesca Hong, 12-15% — 13¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- Will the margin of victory for Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary be between 0% and 3%?: Francesca Hong, 0-3% — 12¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-11T11:20:50.870Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primarymov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Graham%20Platner%20in%20the%202026%20Maine%20Democratic%20Senate%20primary%20be%20between%2030%25%20and%2040%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev