7% — Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%
Kalshi 7% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 13:31:56 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Mike Mazzei will win the Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff by 6 percentage points or more. At 54% probability, it reflects a modest lean toward a decisive Mazzei victory but substantial uncertainty about the final margin. The current pricing suggests markets view Mazzei as the frontrunner in a competitive race where the final gap could plausibly land anywhere from a narrow win to a double-digit margin. The runoff outcome depends on turnout dynamics, endorsement patterns among eliminated candidates, and persuasion efforts in the weeks leading to election day. Resolution will occur when Oklahoma certifies the official vote totals from the runoff election, establishing the exact margin of victory.

Key factors:
- Turnout composition: Changes in who votes between the primary and runoff could significantly shift margins, particularly if one candidate's supporters are more motivated to return
- Endorsement consolidation: How eliminated primary candidates and their supporters align in the runoff directly influences whether Mazzei builds or loses ground
- Current primary data: Mazzei's actual performance and vote share in the first round establishes a baseline from which runoff dynamics operate
- Campaign spending and messaging: Differential resource allocation and persuasion efforts during the runoff period can move the needle within a 5-10 point range
- Late-breaking political developments: State or national events, controversies, or candidate positioning changes in the final weeks before the runoff date could impact turnout and vote allocation

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 3%?: Mike Mazzei, ≥3% — 7¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-26T03:20:49.812Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primarymovd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Mike%20Mazzei%20in%20the%202026%20Oklahoma%20Republican%20Governor%20runoff%20be%20at%20least%206%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev