39% — Will Karen Bass finish 2nd in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election Kalshi 39% · 5 contracts · $578 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:47 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 23% chance that Karen Bass finishes second in the first round of Los Angeles's 2026 mayoral election. The current probability reflects Bass's position as the incumbent mayor, which typically provides name recognition and organizational advantages, but also makes her vulnerable to challenges from other established candidates. The main uncertainty centers on whether competing candidates can consolidate opposition or if Bass retains enough support to either win outright or place higher. Related markets suggest traders view contests between Bass and candidates like Nithya Raman or Spencer Pratt as plausible primary outcomes. The election's first round will ultimately determine whether Bass maintains her political standing or if accumulated challenges from local issues, housing concerns, or competing candidates reshape the race dynamics. The final results will provide direct resolution of this outcome. Key factors: - Bass's current approval ratings as incumbent mayor and whether they've shifted since taking office - The number and quality of competing candidates entering the race and their ability to split the vote - Polling data from Los Angeles voters on primary preferences and Bass's relative standing among them - Voter turnout patterns in Los Angeles primary elections and demographic shifts that could affect Bass's base - Major local policy issues or crises between now and the election that could shift voter sentiment toward or away from Bass Contracts: - Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?: Haley Stevens — 78¢ Kalshi $309 (weight 53%) - Will Jay Collins finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?: Jay Collins — 53¢ Kalshi $214 (weight 37%) - Will Mallory McMorrow finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?: Mallory McMorrow — 7¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 5%) - Will Abdul El-Sayed finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?: Abdul El-Sayed — 11¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 3%) - Will James Fishback finish 2nd in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary?: James Fishback — 48¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.823Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primaryplace Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Karen%20Bass%20finish%202nd%20in%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%20Los%20Angeles%20mayoral%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev