4% — Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1100000
Kalshi 4% · 1 contracts · $7K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-11 11:11:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 79% probability that Michigan's 2026 Democratic Senate primary will draw more than 1.1 million total votes. The high baseline reflects strong turnout expectations in a state with 5+ million registered Democrats, though the exact threshold depends on primary competitiveness and voter enthusiasm. Turnout typically ranges from 15–35% in midterm Democratic primaries; Michigan's 2022 midterm saw robust Democratic participation. The main uncertainty centers on how many candidates compete and whether the race attracts national attention, which would drive higher engagement. Primary turnout will be finalized once voting concludes in August 2026, providing the definitive outcome.

Key factors:
- Michigan has approximately 5.2 million registered Democratic voters; 1.1M votes represents roughly 21% participation, near historical midterm primary average
- 2022 Michigan midterm primary generated approximately 1.2M Democratic votes; 2026 must match or exceed that despite different candidate dynamics
- Turnout correlates strongly with competitive races and candidate visibility; a crowded or nationally prominent Democratic primary would push totals upward
- August 2026 primary date is fixed; final vote totals become deterministic immediately after voting concludes
- Kalshi contracts show 93% confidence in exceeding 900k but only 79% for 1.1M threshold, indicating material uncertainty in the 900k–1.2M range

Contracts:
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1600000?: Above 1.6M — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-08T19:20:51.624Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primaryturnout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20total%20vote%20count%20for%20all%20participants%20in%20the%202026%20Michigan%20Senate%20Democratic%20primary%20be%20above%201100000
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev