49% — What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030
Leader: Oil at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 3 contracts · $198 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that oil will remain the largest source of global primary energy consumption through 2030, with a 46% likelihood. The forecast depends on the trajectory of renewable energy adoption rates, competing energy sources like natural gas and coal, and global policy support for energy transitions. Major catalysts include International Energy Agency assessments, corporate energy investment announcements, and actual renewable capacity additions reported in the coming years. Current market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, with the runner-up outcome at 14% indicating no consensus on alternatives. The outcome will be determined by official energy statistics released around 2030-2031 measuring primary energy consumption across all sources.

Key factors:
- Global renewable energy capacity additions are accelerating; IEA data shows whether this pace sustains or decelerates relative to historical trends
- Oil demand growth or contraction in transportation, heating, and industrial sectors, particularly in developing economies
- Natural gas market share trends relative to coal retirement in developed nations and electrification rates in emerging markets
- Investment flows into renewable infrastructure versus fossil fuel projects, measured by annual capital expenditure reports
- Policy implementations affecting energy production costs, including carbon pricing mechanisms and subsidy changes across major economies

Contracts:
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Oil — 49¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 55%)
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Coal — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Gas — 8¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 45%)

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
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