52% — What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030
Leader: Oil at 52% · Kalshi 52% · 3 contracts · $50 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 03:59:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that oil will remain the largest source of global primary energy consumption through 2030, with a 46% likelihood. The forecast depends on the trajectory of renewable energy adoption rates, competing energy sources like natural gas and coal, and global policy support for energy transitions. Major catalysts include International Energy Agency assessments, corporate energy investment announcements, and actual renewable capacity additions reported in the coming years. Current market pricing suggests significant uncertainty, with the runner-up outcome at 14% indicating no consensus on alternatives. The outcome will be determined by official energy statistics released around 2030-2031 measuring primary energy consumption across all sources.

Key factors:
- Global renewable energy capacity additions are accelerating; IEA data shows whether this pace sustains or decelerates relative to historical trends
- Oil demand growth or contraction in transportation, heating, and industrial sectors, particularly in developing economies
- Natural gas market share trends relative to coal retirement in developed nations and electrification rates in emerging markets
- Investment flows into renewable infrastructure versus fossil fuel projects, measured by annual capital expenditure reports
- Policy implementations affecting energy production costs, including carbon pricing mechanisms and subsidy changes across major economies

Contracts:
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Oil — 52¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 7%)
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Coal — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?: Gas — 10¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 93%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T03:20:50.266Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/primeengconsumption
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20be%20the%20largest%20source%20of%20global%20primary%20energy%20consumption%20in%202030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev