13% — Pro Football
Polymarket 8% · 17 contracts · $184 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:03:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that Houston will win the 2027 NFL championship, based on 20 simultaneous contracts where traders allocate probabilities across all 32 teams. At 90%, this reflects extremely high confidence in Houston relative to other franchises; by comparison, San Francisco trades at 5% and Cincinnati at 3%. The current level reflects Houston's recent roster composition, coaching stability, and perceived competitive window. Primary upward pressure would come from draft results, free-agent acquisitions, or strong preseason performance; downward pressure could result from injury to key players, coaching changes, or playoff disappointment in 2026. The most immediate resolution catalyst is the 2026 NFL season (September 2026 through early 2027), which will demonstrate Houston's actual competitive standing and generate new information about roster health, coaching decisions, and divisional dynamics that investors currently price into these contracts.

Key factors:
- Houston's contract price of 3 cents on Kalshi implies roughly 3% individual win probability, creating a 30x gap between the market leader and the lowest-priced team shown
- The aggregate volume across contracts ($128k+ in 24h trading) indicates material but not exceptional liquidity relative to major championship markets
- Mike Vrabel's coaching future (19 cents on Kalshi) represents near-term uncertainty that could significantly alter Houston's championship trajectory before the 2027 season
- San Francisco and Detroit, traditional contenders, trade at 5 cents—only marginally below Houston despite different roster situations and recent playoff history
- The 2026 NFL regular season and playoffs (September 2026–January 2027) will be the primary mechanism for repricing all 32 team probabilities as actual team performance data emerges

Contracts:
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: New England Patriots — 5¢ Polymarket $55 (weight 11%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Cincinnati Bengals — 89¢ Polymarket $49 (weight 11%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Philadelphia Eagles — 4¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 7%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Las Vegas Raiders — 3¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 5%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Carolina Panthers — 3¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 5%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Baltimore Ravens — 3¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 5%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Chicago Bears — 3¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 5%)
- Pro Football: Where will Dexter Lawrence play Week 1?: Washington Commanders — 3¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 5%)
- ... and 9 more

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pro-football
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Football
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev