43% — Pro Football: AFC North Champion
Leader: AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens at 43% · Polymarket 43% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:28:18 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 54% probability indicates that the leading AFC North team contract is priced to suggest better-than-even odds of winning the division title. The assessment reflects current regular-season performance, roster health, and remaining schedule strength—teams with stronger records and lower injury counts typically trade higher. Movement in this probability would follow week-to-week win-loss results, notable injuries to star players, or changes in strength of schedule. The main resolution catalyst is the NFL regular season's conclusion in early January 2027, which determines the division winner; however, meaningful probability shifts will occur throughout the season as standings clarify and playoff positioning becomes more certain. Interim movements also depend on published injury reports and trade deadline activity in late October.

Key factors:
- Current win-loss record and head-to-head division standings as of May 2026, which establish baseline competitive positioning among the four AFC North teams
- Injury status of key offensive or defensive players on the leading contract team, since absences of star performers typically reduce division-winning probabilities
- Remaining strength of schedule for each AFC North team, measured by opponent win rates from the prior season, affecting expected win totals
- Trading volume and sustained price levels across the four competing division contracts, indicating whether the 54% leader is holding or eroding support
- Performance of division rivals in early-season games (September-October 2026), which can rapidly shift probabilities as actual outcomes replace preseason projections

Contracts:
- Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Baltimore Ravens — 43¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Cincinnati Bengals — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)
- Pro Football: AFC North Champion: Cleveland Browns — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:10.164Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pro-football-afc-north-champion
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Football%3A%20AFC%20North%20Champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev