16% — Pro Football Draft: 1st Round Most Drafted Position Kalshi 16% · 10 contracts · $237 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 20:27:00 UTC Why this matters: At 21%, this probability reflects the likelihood that wide receiver will be the most-drafted position in the 2027 NFL Draft's first round. The market assessment is driven primarily by QB scarcity—with Arch Manning priced at 38¢ to go first overall, quarterback selection is fragmenting demand across multiple prospects rather than concentrating it in one position. Wide receiver demand depends on which teams hold top picks; Miami's 12¢ odds to pick first suggest current draft positioning would favor other positions. The 2026 NFL season and subsequent tank dynamics will reshape draft order and team needs, while the trading deadline could trigger deals that alter which positions teams prioritize. The resolution comes when first-round selections conclude in April 2027. Key factors: - Arch Manning's 38¢ first-overall price indicates QB demand is distributed across prospects rather than concentrated, reducing likelihood any single position dominates first-round selections - Miami holding 12¢ odds for first pick means the second-worst 2026 team likely has defensive or QB needs; Arizona at 11¢ suggests defensive-heavy top-5 draft interest - Wide receiver has limited historical precedent as most-drafted first-round position; positional distribution patterns from 2020-2025 drafts show QB/edge/DB dominance - Off-season trades and free agency between now and April 2027 will alter team needs; teams acquiring premium pass-rushers or secondary players reduce WR demand - Injury attrition to elite QB/edge prospects during 2026 season could consolidate demand into specific positions not currently favored Contracts: - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: CJ Carr — 8¢ Kalshi $104 (weight 44%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith — 6¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 19%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Dante Moore — 15¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 16%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning — 30¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 10%) - Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J — 29¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 8%) - Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona — 34¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:51.030Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pro-football-draft-1st-round-most-drafted-position Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Pro%20Football%20Draft%3A%201st%20Round%20Most%20Drafted%20Position Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev