20% — 2026 Pro Football Draft: 2nd Overall Pick
Kalshi 20% · 5 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 05:50:43 UTC

Why this matters:
The 15% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific team will select second overall in the 2026 Pro Football Draft. This estimate is derived from limited trading volume across four Kalshi contracts, primarily tracking 2027 draft positioning and current coaching changes. The main drivers of this probability are team win-loss records through the 2025 NFL season, which determine draft order, and potential coaching changes that could signal organizational instability or tank intentions. The draft order becomes official after the 2025 regular season concludes in early January 2026, and the draft itself occurs in late April 2026, making these the key resolution events. Until then, the probability depends on how teams perform and whether front office changes indicate strategic positioning for next year's selections.

Key factors:
- Final 2025 NFL regular season standings determine draft order, with the 2nd pick assigned to the team with the worst record that doesn't hold the 1st overall selection
- Current coaching uncertainty (Vrabel contract at 8¢) suggests organizational turnover that could affect team performance and draft positioning in the final weeks of 2025
- Related 2027 draft contracts show Arizona at 19¢, Jets at 15¢, and Miami at 18¢ for 1st overall, indicating market expectations about which teams will tank or struggle
- The 2026 draft occurs in late April, after which this contract resolves; all relevant information (final standings, trades affecting draft picks) becomes public by early January 2026
- Trading volume remains thin across all related contracts ($12-$1,392 in 24h volume), suggesting low liquidity and potential for probability swings with modest new information

Contracts:
- Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Mike Vrabel — 4¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 100%)
- Will New York J make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: New York J — 29¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 0%)
- Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona — 34¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland — 6¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:49.458Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/pro-football-draft-2nd-overall-pick
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Pro%20Football%20Draft%3A%202nd%20Overall%20Pick
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev